Post by Ian Thomas on Oct 4, 2023 21:07:11 GMT 10
These are powerful arguments from the American side against AUKUS ...
So, it appears the situation is this: the American submarines component of AUKUS may not go ahead after all and the UK subs have not even started the design cycle yet. 🤦🏻
Scathing new report hands AUKUS sceptics firepower.
2023, October 3. Australian Financial Review.
www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/scathing-new-report-hands-aukus-sceptics-firepower-20231003-p5e9fz
An accident by the Australian navy operating US-made nuclear-powered submarines could result in American warships being banned from foreign ports, a new report warns US legislators, providing fresh ammunition for congressional sceptics to scuttle the AUKUS deal.
The Congressional Research Service report also reaffirms American doubts that Australia might not use nuclear-powered submarines bought from the US in a war over Taiwan.
“Virginia-class boats are less certain to be used in a US-China conflict over Taiwan, or less certain to be used in such a conflict in the way that the United States might prefer, if they are sold to Australia rather than retained in US Navy service,” the report said.
..
Most alarmingly for Canberra, one risk identified in the report is Australia would “unavoidably” become responsible for preventing an accident once it operated US-made submarines.
Such an accident might “call into question for third-party observers the safety of all US Navy nuclear-powered ships”, potentially affecting “US public support for operating US Navy nuclear-powered ships and/or the ability of US Navy nuclear-powered ships to make port calls around the world for purposes of sending deterrent signals of alliance resolve and solidarity to China, Russia or other potential adversaries”.
The report lists a number of other stumbling blocks.
On the proposed sale of the Virginia-class submarines, the report questions whether a decision needs to be made by Congress in 2023, or whether it could be “deferred until 2024 or later”...
The report stresses Congress still lacks basic details: the dates that the sold boats would leave the US navy, how much service life they would have, the sale price per boat and Australia’s contribution to the US industrial submarine base.
..
Selling Australia submarines would “substantially enhance deterrence of potential Chinese aggression” by sending a strong collective signal from the US, Australia and UK to “counter China’s military modernisation effort”.
The US roadblocks to sharing nuclear-propulsion technology are in contrast to Britain, where a £3.95 billion ($7.5 billion) contract was announced on the weekend to [begin detailed design work on SSN-AUKUS](www.afr.com/link/follow-20180101-p5e95s), the submarine that both the UK and Australian navies will eventually operate. Australia is not contributing money at this point to the design work.
2023, October 3. Australian Financial Review.
www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/scathing-new-report-hands-aukus-sceptics-firepower-20231003-p5e9fz
An accident by the Australian navy operating US-made nuclear-powered submarines could result in American warships being banned from foreign ports, a new report warns US legislators, providing fresh ammunition for congressional sceptics to scuttle the AUKUS deal.
The Congressional Research Service report also reaffirms American doubts that Australia might not use nuclear-powered submarines bought from the US in a war over Taiwan.
“Virginia-class boats are less certain to be used in a US-China conflict over Taiwan, or less certain to be used in such a conflict in the way that the United States might prefer, if they are sold to Australia rather than retained in US Navy service,” the report said.
..
Most alarmingly for Canberra, one risk identified in the report is Australia would “unavoidably” become responsible for preventing an accident once it operated US-made submarines.
Such an accident might “call into question for third-party observers the safety of all US Navy nuclear-powered ships”, potentially affecting “US public support for operating US Navy nuclear-powered ships and/or the ability of US Navy nuclear-powered ships to make port calls around the world for purposes of sending deterrent signals of alliance resolve and solidarity to China, Russia or other potential adversaries”.
The report lists a number of other stumbling blocks.
On the proposed sale of the Virginia-class submarines, the report questions whether a decision needs to be made by Congress in 2023, or whether it could be “deferred until 2024 or later”...
The report stresses Congress still lacks basic details: the dates that the sold boats would leave the US navy, how much service life they would have, the sale price per boat and Australia’s contribution to the US industrial submarine base.
..
Selling Australia submarines would “substantially enhance deterrence of potential Chinese aggression” by sending a strong collective signal from the US, Australia and UK to “counter China’s military modernisation effort”.
The US roadblocks to sharing nuclear-propulsion technology are in contrast to Britain, where a £3.95 billion ($7.5 billion) contract was announced on the weekend to [begin detailed design work on SSN-AUKUS](www.afr.com/link/follow-20180101-p5e95s), the submarine that both the UK and Australian navies will eventually operate. Australia is not contributing money at this point to the design work.
So, it appears the situation is this: the American submarines component of AUKUS may not go ahead after all and the UK subs have not even started the design cycle yet. 🤦🏻
Hmmm ... should we 'fast-forward' the project to 2100 or beyond? 
