Post by Ian Thomas on Nov 7, 2015 19:33:38 GMT 10
Anyone know what's the total number of species ever to have existed on Earth?
As in, best guesstimate totting them all up from, say Cambrian to present. Macro species only, forget microbes.
Reason i ask is I came upon this item in Arxiv -->
If these dudes got their sums right the odds us being alone in the Universe look pretty small, at 1 in 10^-24.
So to put a figure on the probability of a technological species arising on some planet when we have only one example, the Earth, we could say it's 1-in-(total number of species ever) over 600 million years, assuming it takes a couple of billion years to get past the primeval blob stage. Question is what is the number?
* Might as well throw in plants cuz who's to say you can't have a technically minded triffid or whatever?
As in, best guesstimate totting them all up from, say Cambrian to present. Macro species only, forget microbes.
Reason i ask is I came upon this item in Arxiv -->
A New Empirical Constraint on the Prevalence of Technological Species in the Universe
Adam Frank, W.T. Sullivan III
(Submitted on 19 Oct 2015)
arxiv.org/abs/1510.08837
In this paper we address the cosmic frequency of technological species. Recent advances in exoplanet studies provide strong constraints on all astrophysical terms in the Drake Equation. Using these and modifying the form and intent of the Drake equation we show that we can set a firm lower bound on the probability that one or more additional technological species have evolved anywhere and at any time in the history of the observable Universe. We find that as long as the probability that a habitable zone planet develops a technological species is larger than ~10-24, then humanity is not the only time technological intelligence has evolved. This constraint has important scientific and philosophical consequences.
Cite as: arXiv:1510.08837 [astro-ph.EP]
Adam Frank, W.T. Sullivan III
(Submitted on 19 Oct 2015)
arxiv.org/abs/1510.08837
In this paper we address the cosmic frequency of technological species. Recent advances in exoplanet studies provide strong constraints on all astrophysical terms in the Drake Equation. Using these and modifying the form and intent of the Drake equation we show that we can set a firm lower bound on the probability that one or more additional technological species have evolved anywhere and at any time in the history of the observable Universe. We find that as long as the probability that a habitable zone planet develops a technological species is larger than ~10-24, then humanity is not the only time technological intelligence has evolved. This constraint has important scientific and philosophical consequences.
Cite as: arXiv:1510.08837 [astro-ph.EP]
If these dudes got their sums right the odds us being alone in the Universe look pretty small, at 1 in 10^-24.
So to put a figure on the probability of a technological species arising on some planet when we have only one example, the Earth, we could say it's 1-in-(total number of species ever) over 600 million years, assuming it takes a couple of billion years to get past the primeval blob stage. Question is what is the number?
* Might as well throw in plants cuz who's to say you can't have a technically minded triffid or whatever?
